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Early warnings
The Conflict Indexes give an early warning about the issues that will become
decisive for business, for government and for political parties.
The Conflict Indexes reinforce other research as they provide the early warning.
For example, Radnor advised clients in February 2006 that the war in Iraq would
be the major issue hurting Republican candidates in the 2006 elections. The
reason: Iraq was becoming another Hurricane Katrina. The president had
demonstrated his incompetence in dealing with Katrina. People were ready to
doubt his judgment and leadership in Iraq.
Radnor has advised clients on what to expect after the new French president is
elected. We are already advising clients about issues that may lead to an
earlier-than-expected election in Germany. We are also providing information
about which candidates for U.S. president have the best chance to win the
nomination, based on their record and positions on the key issues in those
states that are most important to the nominating process.
The European Conflict Index has allowed Radnor to be surprisingly accurate in
predicting changes of government in Europe. The theory behind both Indexes is
that as the gap between the attitudes of the decision-makers in a country and
the everyday people widens, the chances that the government will fail or change
increases. For our purposes, decision-makers are defined as leaders in
government and political affairs, the media, academia and business. The people
are everyone else who can vote in the next election.
The first challenge is to understand which attitudes are important indicators of
a gap and which are of lesser consequence. The second challenge is to analyze
the significant gap-causing attitudes to determine whether and when they will
lead to action that may produce change. Another challenge is to confirm our
conclusions with additional research.
For information about applying the Conflict Indexes to your decision-making,
please contact Ken Feltman in Washington at +1 202 659-4300. |
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